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(Daily Montanan) Strap on this: In Missoula County, 91% of voters express confidence in the election, according to a University of Montana study based on poll results after November 2020.
You may have heard – unproven – allegations of voter fraud since then in Montana and beyond. Despite the claims, Rep. Geraldine Custer, a Republican from Forsyth who served as an election administrator for 36 years, agreed that many people beyond Missoula County likely have the same feeling that their local elections were also run from fair and equitable manner.
“There is no monkey case going on, and there is so much safety,†Custer said.
This month, Christina Barsky, assistant professor at the UM Baucus Institute in the Department of Public Administration and Policy, explained why she thinks the poll and study results show the number of people who do not have strong or complete confidence in the election of Missoula. are in the minority, 9%. The confidence index is based in part on a survey with a margin of error of 3.71%.
One of the related studies by UM academics notes that Democrats express greater confidence in election administrators than Republicans. Missoula County is generally more liberal than the rest of the state and the level of trust matches.
But in Montana Barsky said the communities are small: “And the distance between the voter and the election office and an election official is not that great. It might be your neighbor.
How voters perceive the motivations of people who work in elections is also a factor, she said. Generally, Barsky said the demographics of an election worker are an older person, more likely a female, whiter than the general population, and not very representative of the population as a whole.
“But they are nice people who help you, and they are really motivated by civic duty,†she said. “… They do it not because they are trying to rig the system, but because they think they should give back to society.” “
The Department of Administration and Public Policy team began organizing the poll long before former Republican President Donald Trump denounced the 2020 election results when voters sent in the Democrat and now the President Joe Biden at the White House. A recent “Audit” of elections in Arizona by Trump supporters cost $ 6 million, found no evidence of fraud, and showed Biden won in a fairly conducted election.
In Montana, a majority of Republican lawmakers called for electoral security hearings too much. Custer, who said she was “on the wrong side of the road” when it came to the election and her party, said she signed the letter calling for hearings because she wanted voters who turned out. ask questions regain their confidence.
“There is no need for an audit,†Custer said. “Money? It would be like throwing it in the wind. That would be crazy.”
In Missoula, the study which showed great confidence in the local elections came after conversations that began in 2015. At the time, a plan was underway to consolidate the polling stations, and Barksy said the Missoula County Election Office asked the Department of Public Administration and Policy for help in determining what voters wanted: “Is this the right decision?” What do voters need to feel safe?
Since then, Missoula County has hired a new election administrator, and Barsky said Bradley Seaman wanted to understand whether voters felt more or less confident in the election over time and where they got their candidate information. and the problems.
The outcome of conversations with Missoula County included a poll in early 2016 (after the 2015 municipal and special elections and before the federal election) and a poll after the 2020 federal election. Additionally, Barsky and the department chairperson Sara Rinfret conducted a statewide survey in 2017 and published a corresponding study with a confidence index in the International Journal of Public Administration.
Barsky shared the 2020 survey results ahead of their publication in academic literature; In general, she said voter confidence has remained at 91 percent overall, but the proportion of voters who feel strong confidence has increased.
Barsky thought that several factors may explain the trust. On the one hand, in 2020 the elections were held by correspondence, but this method was not a big change in Missoula. Second, she said the people of Montana are active in their communities.
“We are a very civically engaged state and community, and we have 600 electoral judges in Missoula County, and they are our friends and neighbors,†Barsky said.
She said she would speculate that confidence in election results could be even higher in more rural counties. In some ways, she said, classical political science theory is at work.
“I love my congressman, but I hate Congress, don’t I? Said Barsky.
Custer agreed that familiarity breeds confidence, and on the flip side, she said people who “hammer†elections “don’t knowâ€. She also said they were playing a dangerous game.
“Choose the media. Choose the electoral process, â€she said. “Start undermining everything our government is based on. They attack the third branch. We’re going to end up with a problem in this country if somebody doesn’t wake up.
Custer also said she was surprised by Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen’s composure given all the safety and security measures in place in Montana (integrity). “
Custer agreed that in Montana, people see election workers at church, at football games, and at the post office, and election administrators want to get it right; if they don’t, they will hear from these people.
“You don’t want the local newspaper to say you messed up something about the election,†Custer said.
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